Jersey Village Preview
Where else on the Internet but Jim's Orbit can you find horse-by-horse handicapping analysis for the week's top stakes race in Texas, written by someone who lives and goes to the races in Texas? The answer, as far as I know, is nowhere!
Saturday night at Sam Houston is the $45,000 Jersey Village for older Texas-bred females at 8.5 furlongs on the turf.
We'll go from the rail out...
BETTY GARR
I'm always willing to dismiss a poor effort over off going. The 4-year-old chestnut is competitive with these, based on a respectable finish in the San Jacinto in December, but does not stand out as a likely winner.
SWEET IDEA
Still on the duck at Oaklawn, this is a good opportunity for Q-Ham to experience winning again after a month away from Texas. This Langfuhr filly was a head away from taking the Lone Star Oaks against open company last summer, and she's already a two-time winner on dirt this season. There's no main-track stakes for her until next month, so my guess is that Calhoun is just taking a shot because the filly's in form. But this is a much different, thicker turf course from Lone Star, the only one where she's ever had success. And she'll have some other speed pressing her from the outside. To me, it all adds up to an overbet favorite. Let's take a shot against her in this vulnerable spot.
NIGHT SPEEKER
A game second at long odds in the Allen's Landing last month, but that's hard to gauge on paper with slow fractions over a yielding course. This is why we need something more scientific than an adjective to rate the turf's firmness in our past performances. How am I supposed to know (without watching the replay, I mean) if that was an easy lead, or if they labored over a heavy bog? I want to root for her, but still suspect she's overmatched.
LA RAINE OF TERROR
Now this one's interesting. Was beaten badly by Sweet Idea two back, but on the main track. Her one turf start was a respectable fourth in a $40,000 maiden at Delaware, where they have some very good grass racing. She won easy a few weeks ago in an entry-level state-bred allowance, one of the only winners Walker had the weekend I predicted he would go nuts. She comes from off the pace and has the underappreciated Walker back aboard. Lots to like here.
BRUSHABYBABY
I would normally dismiss her outright, but for this one she picks up the services of leading jockey Larry Taylor, who rides them all to win and regularly comes through with crazy longshots. She looks way overmatched but I've seen Larry do it too many times to not use her. I realize this may not sound like a very compelling reason to some people, but seriously, the guy could get third place money riding a kayak in the Kentucky Derby.
I.B.'s HALO
Three starts this meet, three third-place finishes, all in stakes. Hard to argue with that, but three of this race's competitors finished ahead of her in those races with no excuses. I'll get creative and pick her for third.
WILD ENCOUNTER
Reeled off four in a row, including a dead-heat in the San J, before losing over a yielding course. She's ultraconsistent, proven over the course, the distance, and in stakes. Nothing not to like, except maybe the price, but we'll hope Sweet Idea attracts more love from other bettors.
SO SORRY
This is a tough spot to try stretching out for the first time, but her sire was a Grade I winner going long. Nonetheless, there isn't much in the PPs to suggest this is doable for her.
OLMOSTA
Not even closeta. Can't support one who has never managed to hit the board in three turf tries.
So now that I've analyzed, here's my predicted order of finish (why only give a top three when you have all the space in the world?)...
1. WILD ENCOUNTER
2. LA RAINE OF TERROR
3. I.B.'s HALO
4. SWEET IDEA
5. BETTY GARR
6. BRUSHABYBABY
7. SO SORRY
8. NIGHT SPEEKER
9. OLMOSTA
Good luck to all!
Saturday night at Sam Houston is the $45,000 Jersey Village for older Texas-bred females at 8.5 furlongs on the turf.
We'll go from the rail out...
BETTY GARR
I'm always willing to dismiss a poor effort over off going. The 4-year-old chestnut is competitive with these, based on a respectable finish in the San Jacinto in December, but does not stand out as a likely winner.
SWEET IDEA
Still on the duck at Oaklawn, this is a good opportunity for Q-Ham to experience winning again after a month away from Texas. This Langfuhr filly was a head away from taking the Lone Star Oaks against open company last summer, and she's already a two-time winner on dirt this season. There's no main-track stakes for her until next month, so my guess is that Calhoun is just taking a shot because the filly's in form. But this is a much different, thicker turf course from Lone Star, the only one where she's ever had success. And she'll have some other speed pressing her from the outside. To me, it all adds up to an overbet favorite. Let's take a shot against her in this vulnerable spot.
NIGHT SPEEKER
A game second at long odds in the Allen's Landing last month, but that's hard to gauge on paper with slow fractions over a yielding course. This is why we need something more scientific than an adjective to rate the turf's firmness in our past performances. How am I supposed to know (without watching the replay, I mean) if that was an easy lead, or if they labored over a heavy bog? I want to root for her, but still suspect she's overmatched.
LA RAINE OF TERROR
Now this one's interesting. Was beaten badly by Sweet Idea two back, but on the main track. Her one turf start was a respectable fourth in a $40,000 maiden at Delaware, where they have some very good grass racing. She won easy a few weeks ago in an entry-level state-bred allowance, one of the only winners Walker had the weekend I predicted he would go nuts. She comes from off the pace and has the underappreciated Walker back aboard. Lots to like here.
BRUSHABYBABY
I would normally dismiss her outright, but for this one she picks up the services of leading jockey Larry Taylor, who rides them all to win and regularly comes through with crazy longshots. She looks way overmatched but I've seen Larry do it too many times to not use her. I realize this may not sound like a very compelling reason to some people, but seriously, the guy could get third place money riding a kayak in the Kentucky Derby.
I.B.'s HALO
Three starts this meet, three third-place finishes, all in stakes. Hard to argue with that, but three of this race's competitors finished ahead of her in those races with no excuses. I'll get creative and pick her for third.
WILD ENCOUNTER
Reeled off four in a row, including a dead-heat in the San J, before losing over a yielding course. She's ultraconsistent, proven over the course, the distance, and in stakes. Nothing not to like, except maybe the price, but we'll hope Sweet Idea attracts more love from other bettors.
SO SORRY
This is a tough spot to try stretching out for the first time, but her sire was a Grade I winner going long. Nonetheless, there isn't much in the PPs to suggest this is doable for her.
OLMOSTA
Not even closeta. Can't support one who has never managed to hit the board in three turf tries.
So now that I've analyzed, here's my predicted order of finish (why only give a top three when you have all the space in the world?)...
1. WILD ENCOUNTER
2. LA RAINE OF TERROR
3. I.B.'s HALO
4. SWEET IDEA
5. BETTY GARR
6. BRUSHABYBABY
7. SO SORRY
8. NIGHT SPEEKER
9. OLMOSTA
Good luck to all!
posted by Jimbo @ 2/07/2007 11:00:00 PM
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