Sandburr to tackle big boys in N.O. 'Cap
Just how lucky am I these days? I have to go to New Orleans this weekend for my friend's wedding on Saturday, which isn't scheduled to start until after dark at 7 p.m. Meaning I can head out to Fair Grounds in the afternoon for the richest day of racing in Louisiana history, with four straight Grade II stakes.
For fans of Texas racing, the most intriguing race of the afternoon might not be the Louisiana Derby, but the New Orleans Handicap featuring the great Sandburr, winner of the Star of Texas at Sam Houston in December, followed by an upset in the Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup a month later.
So does he have any chance against the likes of Master Command, More Than Regal, Liquor Cabinet, and Patriot Act?
Well, probably not. In fact, I hate to say it, but definitely not.
One thing to admire about Sandburr is his consistency. But looking at this field, every entrant is exceptionally consistent, which doesn't help the outlook for our Texas-bred hero. Sometimes I'll take a seemingly overmatched longshot at a good price if he's the type of horse that always runs his race, and he's up against a few who have run faster but have spotty records. That's when you get a solid chance at a nice price making the exacta.
But here I can't see it. This is a field of better horses, and none of them give any indication that they might throw a clunker in New Orleans.
The winner of Sandburr's last race, Master Command, ran the 8.5 furlongs that day two full seconds faster than Sandburr did while winning over the same track a month before. Some people will tell you time's not important because of how the surface changes, but when the difference is two seconds, that's significant, unless they happened to pave the track in early February.
Sandburr's just flat-out not fast enough to run with these legitimate Grade II studs. But hey, I'll be rooting for him all the way, and I give credit to Michael Stidham for taking a shot. You never know for sure until you test them, and you might as well take a chance when you're on your game and the race is in your backyard.
And think of it like this. When you're talking about a half-million-dollar purse, third place would be worth only a little less than winning the Star of Texas, and a surprise runner-up finish would be a hundred-thousand-dollar payday. And it's only a seven-horse field, so what the heck, give it a shot and see what happens. Whoa, I'm starting to sound like I work in the racing office.
Moving on...
Remember to stick around or stay tuned for the nightcap from Fair Grounds, where there's a Texas-bred that I do recommend betting on. Take a look at Capote's Diamond, looking to break his maiden in his fifth try for Larry Robideaux.
Note that two back he ran second to Louisiana Derby entrant Ketchikan, who has a good chance to surprise people in the feature. Capote's Diamond showed speed last time and faded, an angle I like. You know the colt is fast, and maybe he's more fit this time, or relaxes better, either of which could happen in Robideaux's extremely capable hands.
After a card like this, you'll probably need a good bet to get out at the end of the day. Give this one some serious consideration.
For fans of Texas racing, the most intriguing race of the afternoon might not be the Louisiana Derby, but the New Orleans Handicap featuring the great Sandburr, winner of the Star of Texas at Sam Houston in December, followed by an upset in the Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup a month later.
So does he have any chance against the likes of Master Command, More Than Regal, Liquor Cabinet, and Patriot Act?
Well, probably not. In fact, I hate to say it, but definitely not.
One thing to admire about Sandburr is his consistency. But looking at this field, every entrant is exceptionally consistent, which doesn't help the outlook for our Texas-bred hero. Sometimes I'll take a seemingly overmatched longshot at a good price if he's the type of horse that always runs his race, and he's up against a few who have run faster but have spotty records. That's when you get a solid chance at a nice price making the exacta.
But here I can't see it. This is a field of better horses, and none of them give any indication that they might throw a clunker in New Orleans.
The winner of Sandburr's last race, Master Command, ran the 8.5 furlongs that day two full seconds faster than Sandburr did while winning over the same track a month before. Some people will tell you time's not important because of how the surface changes, but when the difference is two seconds, that's significant, unless they happened to pave the track in early February.
Sandburr's just flat-out not fast enough to run with these legitimate Grade II studs. But hey, I'll be rooting for him all the way, and I give credit to Michael Stidham for taking a shot. You never know for sure until you test them, and you might as well take a chance when you're on your game and the race is in your backyard.
And think of it like this. When you're talking about a half-million-dollar purse, third place would be worth only a little less than winning the Star of Texas, and a surprise runner-up finish would be a hundred-thousand-dollar payday. And it's only a seven-horse field, so what the heck, give it a shot and see what happens. Whoa, I'm starting to sound like I work in the racing office.
Moving on...
Remember to stick around or stay tuned for the nightcap from Fair Grounds, where there's a Texas-bred that I do recommend betting on. Take a look at Capote's Diamond, looking to break his maiden in his fifth try for Larry Robideaux.
Note that two back he ran second to Louisiana Derby entrant Ketchikan, who has a good chance to surprise people in the feature. Capote's Diamond showed speed last time and faded, an angle I like. You know the colt is fast, and maybe he's more fit this time, or relaxes better, either of which could happen in Robideaux's extremely capable hands.
After a card like this, you'll probably need a good bet to get out at the end of the day. Give this one some serious consideration.
posted by Jimbo @ 3/08/2007 10:19:00 PM
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