Texas Champions Day Selections

It's kind of a shame that the best night of racing at Sam Houston is so early in the meet. After this there isn't another real stakes race until the MAXXAM on January 26, and no big day again until the Connally on April 5. Feels like we're just getting started, but after this the next few months are kind of anticlimactic. Not that it's the track's fault there's no money for a more robust stakes program, but it's still a sad reflection of where Texas racing is at. In my mind if you don't at least have a stakes race every week then it's hard to pretend your big-league.

But hey, let's not dwell on the negative. I'm just thankful there are thoroughbreds back in Houston. We've got eight stakes on Saturday with 74 horses entered (that's a respectable 9.25 per race), which means good betting all around. Early forecasts call for perfect racing weather, so I'm handicapping for fast and firm.

Below you'll find my take on each race, featuring top-three selections, brief analysis, and a suggested wager. I'm not handicapping with the benefit of a morning line, so any estimates of prices are my own guesses.

The Spirit of Texas (3&up at 6f)
Mystery Classic/Nuttyboom/Snuck By
I hate starting my blog up again after a six-month hiatus and picking a heavy favorite in my first race back, but there's no way around the defending race champion, Mystery Classic, in this spot. He dominated open company in his last two stakes, at Retama and Remington, and he's back in here off the same kind of lengthy layoff he had before last year's easy score. In the race for second, Snuck By will separate from the field with Mystery Classic early on, but my hope is that Nuttyboom will offer more value because of his relatively spotty record this year. He loves Sam Houston and I love him for second.
Suggested wager: $50,000 straight exacta Mystery Classic-Nuttyboom

The Bara Lass (2yo fillies at 7f)
Valid Lilly/Shedoesrock/Soar Above
After winning the two richest races in her division it's hard not to like Valid Lilly. For some more imaginitive picks you'll have to keep reading. The peculiarly named Shedoesrock, who has proven able to run respectably against the likes of the favorite, will round out an exacta that can buy all you addicts enough crack to keep you wasted through 2009.
Suggested wager: $100,000 to win on Valid Lilly

The Groovy (2yo at 7f)
Namesake/Moody Jones/Ferdinand's Flyer
It's hard to see how Namesake can turn the tables and make up more than eight lengths on the favorite, but I'm going to bet on it based off the works. Although we can't tell from the PPs who worked with whom, I would bet that Namesake worked with Valid Lilly in a set on the 25th, probably with Steve Asmussen's other two-year-old stakes entrants. Namesake finished 1/5 behind the fillies, so keep an eye on how they finish in the race before. Meanwhile, Ferdinand's Flyer didn't post an official work for a month after the last race and breezed in :52 1/5 for Cheryl Asmussen the same day that Namesake was out for Steve.
Suggested Wager: $5,000 tri wheel Namesake-ALL-Ferdinand's Flyer

The Yellow Rose (F&M 3&up at 6f)
Wrenice/Valid Lil/Ryan's Inheritance
Last year's Horse of the Meet couldn't get her footing on the turf last out, so don't kid yourself into thinking that one off-the-board finish means she's vulnerable. She ain't. Among Texas-bred fillies racing in Texas, there is Wrenice and there is everyone else. That said, I can't wait to see Valid Lil run with her early on. She's a real racehorse to, but Wrenice is going to break her heart in her first matchup on dirt against a better filly. Ryan's Inheritance is likely to impove in her first start for the Breeders' Cup Classic-winning trainer.
Suggested wager: $1,000,000,000 to win on Wrenice

The Richard King (3&up at 9f on turf)
Alleged Hug/General Charley/Man Named Sue
Here's my upset special of the day, on a card that doesn't offer many obvious opportunities to bet against the chalk. These horses are closer together than the Beyer Figures suggest. General Charley won easy at Retama and figures to be a short price, which I'm not willing to take on a horse that lost here a year ago against lesser horses than these. With Spiffy Agenda in here to push the favorite early on it won't be an easy task to win back to back. Alleged Hug will get a comfortable stalking trip behind the pacesetters and, although I can't be certain of his ability to get this distance, he should be ready to run his best race for a trainer that has long excelled at getting his horses ready for the big days.
Suggested wager: $2 trifecta wheel Alleged Hug-General Chuck-ALL

The Martanza (F&M 3&up at 8f)
Party of One/Sweet Idea/Sweet Appeal
This is a race where I really want to bet against what I expect to be a heavy favorite in Sweet Idea, but the alternatives are bleak. I'm not crazy about Party of One, or any of these other fillies who don't really deserve to be stakes winners, but I see an opportunity here. Sweet Idea looks to me like a filly that must be really messed up. Why would you keep running her on turf when she's proven to prefer the dirt, and why all the slow, conservative works? It's all a little too fishy for my tastes. Party of One looks to have a lot of heart, ran a fast mile on soft turf at Lone Star, and ran a decent mile at Evengeline considering it's a bullring. Somebody has to run third and Sweet Appeal is at least familiar with the course and seems to like it.
Suggested wager: $100 exactas Party of One and Sweet Appeal to Sweet Idea

The Star of Texas (3&up at 8.5f)
Goosey Moose/Sandburr/Dreamsandvisions
The main event brings out some of our favorite old Texas campaigners, including Goosey Moose and Dreamsandvisions. The defending champion Sandburr will be favored again, but that's a risky proposition for an eight-year-old coming back from a six-month layoff. Instead, my money will be on the hard-trying Goosey Moose, who has been overachieving for years now and has won races like this before. If there will ever be a time for him to get the best of Sandburr, now is it. I'll still take Sandburr for second based on my memory of his win against open stakes company at Fairgrounds last winter, an achievement out of the realm of possibility for most Texas-breds. In third it's Dreamsandvisions, rounding out a perfect trifecta of the best older horses we have around here to end the year.
Suggested wager: $2,944 trifecta Goosey Moose and Dreamsandvisions with ALL with Goosey and Dreams and Sand

The San Jacinto (3&up F&M at 8.5f on turf)
Wild Encounter/Durrymane/Boundus
If you bet every race up to this one and still show a profit then you should probably count your blessings and go home...but we all know that's no fun. Roll it all into Wild Encounter, who made a big impression here last winter but couldn't replicate her Sam Houston form elsewhere in Texas. Now it's back to her favorite track as the defending race champion and you might get a fair price if she ends up third or fourth choice behind some of those exiting the Fiesta Mile.
Suggested wager: Go out with a bang! Everything you have on Wild Encounter to win (but don't bet too much because I don't want you to kill my price!)

So there you have it. Don't forget to show up early and get some extra expert insight from the astute DRF handicapper and reporter Mary Rampellini, plus Sam Houston's Michael Chamberlain and the Chronicle's Martha Claussen. If you see me there come say hi!