Texas Champions Recap: Alleged Hug ($21.20) Saves the Night
I wasn't exactly consistent in my Texas Champions Day handicapping, but keying on Alleged Hug in the Richard King saved my night. I didn't have the right suggested wager on the blog, but did have the $21.20 winner on top and, in my real-life wagers, hit the $113.60 exacta for two bucks. This was a night where you had no chance to grind out a profit, but a good opportunity to make a big score if you came up with the right bomb or middle-priced horse. A lot of short-priced faves went down. It's not easy to go back and look at so many failures in my own picks, but that's how we learn, and that's also how you see that I don't mind being accountable for my handicapping. So here's a review of the picks I posted on Friday...
The Spirit of Texas
Mystery Classic came through as the odds-on favorite, as I predicted, but nearly got caught at the finish by a fast-closing Rain On Monday. The colt I had honed in on to complete the exacta, Nuttyboom, ran a dull fourth.
The Bara Lass
I was nowhere near this, as Ms Classic Seneca wheeled back on one-week's rest to post a $29.60 upset. My pick, the short-priced Valid Lilly, led into mid-stretch but tired badly the final furlong and checked in third. I have to give a huge shout-out to Sam Houston track announcer Michael Chamberlain, who picked the winner on top in his on-track tip sheet, From the Mike, and gave out this filly in the pre-race seminar. He also had the second- and third-place finishers in his top three to round out an incredible $2,400 trifecta. I have never in my life paid for a tip sheet before last night, when I got to the track and the nice lady selling the form asked, as if working the drive-thru at Jack in the Box, "Would you like to add a tip sheet for one dollar more?" I asked her who did it and she told me, "Michael Chamberlain, the announcer." I respect Michael as a handicapper, and I admired the effort to up the sales by the nice lady, so I figured what the hell, I'll check out the tip sheet. Not that I bet the horse, even after getting pushed on the filly a second time by another press box denizen, but I thought I'd relay the story just because I couldn't believe Chamberlain gave that one out. Nice hit, Michael. You can bet I'll be buying From the Mike next time I make it out.
The Groovy
This is another I one I was nowhere close on, but neither was anyone else. The $105.40 winner, Crook's Bodgit, was coming off an eight-length loss in a fist-level allowance at Delta Downs. Value seekers who really looked deep into the past performances, however, might have dismissed his last two efforts--one in the slop and one a poor turf debut. His maiden win at Louisiana Downs wasn't anything special, but at 50-1 an attentive bettor (which I'm not always, especially when I'mat the track drinking beer and socializing) might have seen an overlay worth throwing into the mix.
The Yellow Rose
Everybody (by everybody I guess I mean myself and the three handicappers in the pre-race seminar, plus the bettors whose feelings could be gauged by the prices on the tote board) seemed to think this was a two-horse race between Wrenice and Valid Lil. But Wrenice was done after a half-mile and finished last, and Valid Lil never made any kind of run. Annie Savoy, overlooked at 14-1 despite winning a stakes here last season, came charging in the stretch to win it by a nose over 13-1 Stealth Cat from the Steve Asmusseun barn. I had picked Wrenice with great confidence and will be eager to hear what happened to her.
The Richard King
I named Alleged Hug my "upset special of the day" on Friday, and lo and behold, look who won and paid $21.20! I didn't like General Charley as the favorite, but was still surprised he didn't even hit the board (he checked in seventh). My goofball suggested wager had counted on General Charley finishing second, but in real life that bet was too expensive for me by this point, so I played a 5-6-7 exacta box and cashed for $113.60. Nonetheless, I'm proud to have touted this live longshot on top and hope that some of you had it. If so, remember that you read it here on Jim's Orbit.
The Martanza
You can't blame me for this one, as my top choice went off at 6-1, stalked the leaders in fourth through the opening half-mile, started moving up between rivals on the far turn, then clipped heels and fell. That's a tough way to get beat, when you don't even get to find out whether you picked the best horse in the race or not. I'm at least happy to report that the horse got up and was walked off. I had recommended an exacta with two longshots over the favorite Sweet Idea, who did, in fact, finish second. The other longshot I liked, Sweet Appeal, set a pressured pace at 22-1 and faded to finish fifth. The 11-1 winner, Hollye Lynne, has now won three in a row since joining the barn of John Locke.
The Star of Texas
I'm not surprised that defending champion Sandburr repeated, I just wish I had done the logical thing and bet on it. I had convinced myself on Thursday that it was too risky to bet him coming back off a six-month layoff, but I started to have second thoughts after reading Martha Claussen's reporting in the Chronicle on Friday, which quoted trainer Michael Stidham as saying he was really working well. I should have known then to back off my initial thought, but I was too stubborn and stuck to my opinion, only to watch the favorite roll to a nearly two-length win. That Sandburr's a great Texas-bred, and I hereby vow to start giving him the proper respect. My pick, Goosey Moose, had a no-excuse trip and just came up short, checking in third.
The San Jacinto
My choice, Wild Encounter, finished a disappointing seventh, but in the wagering you would still be a winner, as entrymate Jenz Benz got the job done. I'll count that one in the victory column (paid $5.60), especially since my suggested wager was to bet "everything you have on Wild Encounter to win." So if you took that advice, um, you're welcome!
So, if you count Jenz Benz, this handicapper went three-for-eight in the stakes on a night when the average winner paid $28.25, not a bad record at all. Keep checking back as the season continues for more stakes previews, plus other random tidbits.
The Spirit of Texas
Mystery Classic came through as the odds-on favorite, as I predicted, but nearly got caught at the finish by a fast-closing Rain On Monday. The colt I had honed in on to complete the exacta, Nuttyboom, ran a dull fourth.
The Bara Lass
I was nowhere near this, as Ms Classic Seneca wheeled back on one-week's rest to post a $29.60 upset. My pick, the short-priced Valid Lilly, led into mid-stretch but tired badly the final furlong and checked in third. I have to give a huge shout-out to Sam Houston track announcer Michael Chamberlain, who picked the winner on top in his on-track tip sheet, From the Mike, and gave out this filly in the pre-race seminar. He also had the second- and third-place finishers in his top three to round out an incredible $2,400 trifecta. I have never in my life paid for a tip sheet before last night, when I got to the track and the nice lady selling the form asked, as if working the drive-thru at Jack in the Box, "Would you like to add a tip sheet for one dollar more?" I asked her who did it and she told me, "Michael Chamberlain, the announcer." I respect Michael as a handicapper, and I admired the effort to up the sales by the nice lady, so I figured what the hell, I'll check out the tip sheet. Not that I bet the horse, even after getting pushed on the filly a second time by another press box denizen, but I thought I'd relay the story just because I couldn't believe Chamberlain gave that one out. Nice hit, Michael. You can bet I'll be buying From the Mike next time I make it out.
The Groovy
This is another I one I was nowhere close on, but neither was anyone else. The $105.40 winner, Crook's Bodgit, was coming off an eight-length loss in a fist-level allowance at Delta Downs. Value seekers who really looked deep into the past performances, however, might have dismissed his last two efforts--one in the slop and one a poor turf debut. His maiden win at Louisiana Downs wasn't anything special, but at 50-1 an attentive bettor (which I'm not always, especially when I'mat the track drinking beer and socializing) might have seen an overlay worth throwing into the mix.
The Yellow Rose
Everybody (by everybody I guess I mean myself and the three handicappers in the pre-race seminar, plus the bettors whose feelings could be gauged by the prices on the tote board) seemed to think this was a two-horse race between Wrenice and Valid Lil. But Wrenice was done after a half-mile and finished last, and Valid Lil never made any kind of run. Annie Savoy, overlooked at 14-1 despite winning a stakes here last season, came charging in the stretch to win it by a nose over 13-1 Stealth Cat from the Steve Asmusseun barn. I had picked Wrenice with great confidence and will be eager to hear what happened to her.
The Richard King
I named Alleged Hug my "upset special of the day" on Friday, and lo and behold, look who won and paid $21.20! I didn't like General Charley as the favorite, but was still surprised he didn't even hit the board (he checked in seventh). My goofball suggested wager had counted on General Charley finishing second, but in real life that bet was too expensive for me by this point, so I played a 5-6-7 exacta box and cashed for $113.60. Nonetheless, I'm proud to have touted this live longshot on top and hope that some of you had it. If so, remember that you read it here on Jim's Orbit.
The Martanza
You can't blame me for this one, as my top choice went off at 6-1, stalked the leaders in fourth through the opening half-mile, started moving up between rivals on the far turn, then clipped heels and fell. That's a tough way to get beat, when you don't even get to find out whether you picked the best horse in the race or not. I'm at least happy to report that the horse got up and was walked off. I had recommended an exacta with two longshots over the favorite Sweet Idea, who did, in fact, finish second. The other longshot I liked, Sweet Appeal, set a pressured pace at 22-1 and faded to finish fifth. The 11-1 winner, Hollye Lynne, has now won three in a row since joining the barn of John Locke.
The Star of Texas
I'm not surprised that defending champion Sandburr repeated, I just wish I had done the logical thing and bet on it. I had convinced myself on Thursday that it was too risky to bet him coming back off a six-month layoff, but I started to have second thoughts after reading Martha Claussen's reporting in the Chronicle on Friday, which quoted trainer Michael Stidham as saying he was really working well. I should have known then to back off my initial thought, but I was too stubborn and stuck to my opinion, only to watch the favorite roll to a nearly two-length win. That Sandburr's a great Texas-bred, and I hereby vow to start giving him the proper respect. My pick, Goosey Moose, had a no-excuse trip and just came up short, checking in third.
The San Jacinto
My choice, Wild Encounter, finished a disappointing seventh, but in the wagering you would still be a winner, as entrymate Jenz Benz got the job done. I'll count that one in the victory column (paid $5.60), especially since my suggested wager was to bet "everything you have on Wild Encounter to win." So if you took that advice, um, you're welcome!
So, if you count Jenz Benz, this handicapper went three-for-eight in the stakes on a night when the average winner paid $28.25, not a bad record at all. Keep checking back as the season continues for more stakes previews, plus other random tidbits.
posted by Jimbo @ 12/02/2007 05:39:00 PM
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