Saturday's Hou feature

I've been housebound the past two days thanks to this nasty cold that's going around, so I might as well do something useful and handicap Saturday's card at Sam Houston.

The feature is one of the many $25,000 overnight stakes that will stand in for the real stakes races they can't afford. On a totally, completely, not-at-all related note, did you notice that they're running about $1.5 million worth of stakes a few hours east at Delta Downs in Vinton, La., this weekend? Bill Mott's running a colt, and name riders like Patrick Valenzuela and Rafael Bejarano will be there too. Now that sounds like fun. I wonder where they get all that money for such a great stakes program. Could it be slot machines?

But who cares about the richest juvenile race of the year outside the Breeders' Cup? Not me. This is a blog about Texas racing, dammit, so that's what you're going to get, like it or not. Now listen up, this here $25,000 Buffalo Bayou is an interesting race, and we're going to figure out how to make some money off of it.

The standout in this 8.5-furlong turf event for older horses is Smooth Bid, a Maryland-bred son of Rubaiano with more than $320k in earnings. His last win came over the summer at Lone Star, in a solid allowance race where he beat some tough turf veterans like stakes winners Wishingitwas (remember when that old guy won the first race on Breeders' Cup Day at Lone Star for Bart Evans? I still can't believe that one.), and Nobodywantmetilnow. Smmoth Bid then hit the board in three Remington Park stakes, making him the class of this field.

But wait a minute, you says, I can't make any money betting an odds-on favorite from the Steve Asmussen barn. You're right about that.

So instead let's take a look at Gold Sound, the French-bred making his second start in the U.S. for trainer Michael Stidham. The gelding nearly won a one-mile stakes race at Longchamp in April, then just missed as the favorite in his next two, both allowance races. He turned in a horribly dull effort at Churchill in a high-priced claimer last month, which apparently told Stidham he needed to face some softer company. There must not have been any physical excuse for the last effort, or Stidham wouldn't run him back in two weeks after vanning in from Kentucky. As long as he gets a firm turf course, I'll look for this guy to pull of the mild upset.

Let's check the Equibase morning line. They've got Smooth Bid at 3-1 and Gold Soundz at 7-2. I expect Smooth Bid to be much shorter than that. If they really are both that generous, I'd box them in a fat exacta and watch them run away from the field and who cares which one finishes first. But since I predict Smooth Bid to be pretty heavily bet, let's go with win money on Gold Sound and trifectas with Gold Sound on top, Smooth Bid second, and two others in third, then another ticket with Gold Sound on top, the two others in second, and Smooth Bid in third.

For the two others I'll use Wild Series, wheeling back for his 19th start of the year (!) after a non-effort on Texas Champions Day/Night, and Silver haze, who handled some decent turf horses at Remington this fall.

So it's $20 to win on (Go back to those) Gold Soundz, plus $5 trifectas 5/6/2,3 and 5/2,3/6.

Best of luck!