Gold Sound...powered to the front

Here's the commentary on the top three in Saturday's Buffalo Bayou Stakes (see below) from Equibase's official race chart...

GOLD SOUND (FR) was well placed in the early going while being settled, saved ground on the far turn then was blocked just coming out of the far turn, split rivals in mid stretch and powered to the front and drew off in late stretch. SILVER HAZE was unhurried early then rallied five wide on the far turn and stayed five wide in the stretch making a strong bid but was no match for the winner in late stretch. SMOOTH BID vied for the early lead while two wide then dueled for the lead from the outside, was in a long drive and faded in the stretch.

Saturday recap: $418 in winnings!!!

Hope you followed my picks in Saturday's Buffalo Bayou Stakes at Sam Houston. It was the only race I handicapped and made selections for this weekend (see below for original post) and I (or we, if you heeded my advice) nailed it, hitting the $20 win bet on Gold Sound, plus the $5 trifecta with Silver Haze in second and the odds-on beaten favorite, Smooth Bid, in third.

Gold Sound paid $8.60 to win as the generously priced second choice. My suggested wager being $20 to win, that was an $86 return, $66 of it for profit.

Meanwhile, I also suggested four $5 trifectas, all with Gold Sound on top. The correct ticket had Silver Haze in second, resulting in a tri that returned $132.80 for $2, or $332 for me since I had it 2 1/2 times! It's also worth noting that all of my suggested trifectas contained the top four finishers, which also included Wild Series in fourth at 14-1. The four horses I used made up a very hittable $644 superfecta. The $20 worth of tri wagers I recommended returned a $312 profit.

In all, my $40 of suggested wagers on this one race cashed out for $418, a $378 profit.

See, you can't afford to NOT be reading Jim's Orbit these days! Saturday's score comes on the heels of our Texas Champions Day winning selection of Alleged Hug ($21.20) in the Richard King Stakes.

For me, this latest streak reinforces my strong belief that I do better in allowance and stakes races (or in this case, allowance races dressed up to look like stakes races!), when the horses are known commodities and the trainers' intentions are more obvious. There's always a chance of correctly predicting any race, but your chances are much better when you know it's likely that every horse is in it to win, not just to be claimed, or not just to gain valuable experience, or not just to get fit for the next one, or not as a favor to the racing office who needs to fill the card, or not to appease a delusional owner, or not to just experiment with an equipment or surface change because nothing else seems to be working, etc. You get the point. There are so many more things going on with claimers that don't show up in the past performances. If you have the patience and really want to keep making money, save the bulk of your bankroll for the good races where the playing field is more level.

Saturday's Hou feature

I've been housebound the past two days thanks to this nasty cold that's going around, so I might as well do something useful and handicap Saturday's card at Sam Houston.

The feature is one of the many $25,000 overnight stakes that will stand in for the real stakes races they can't afford. On a totally, completely, not-at-all related note, did you notice that they're running about $1.5 million worth of stakes a few hours east at Delta Downs in Vinton, La., this weekend? Bill Mott's running a colt, and name riders like Patrick Valenzuela and Rafael Bejarano will be there too. Now that sounds like fun. I wonder where they get all that money for such a great stakes program. Could it be slot machines?

But who cares about the richest juvenile race of the year outside the Breeders' Cup? Not me. This is a blog about Texas racing, dammit, so that's what you're going to get, like it or not. Now listen up, this here $25,000 Buffalo Bayou is an interesting race, and we're going to figure out how to make some money off of it.

The standout in this 8.5-furlong turf event for older horses is Smooth Bid, a Maryland-bred son of Rubaiano with more than $320k in earnings. His last win came over the summer at Lone Star, in a solid allowance race where he beat some tough turf veterans like stakes winners Wishingitwas (remember when that old guy won the first race on Breeders' Cup Day at Lone Star for Bart Evans? I still can't believe that one.), and Nobodywantmetilnow. Smmoth Bid then hit the board in three Remington Park stakes, making him the class of this field.

But wait a minute, you says, I can't make any money betting an odds-on favorite from the Steve Asmussen barn. You're right about that.

So instead let's take a look at Gold Sound, the French-bred making his second start in the U.S. for trainer Michael Stidham. The gelding nearly won a one-mile stakes race at Longchamp in April, then just missed as the favorite in his next two, both allowance races. He turned in a horribly dull effort at Churchill in a high-priced claimer last month, which apparently told Stidham he needed to face some softer company. There must not have been any physical excuse for the last effort, or Stidham wouldn't run him back in two weeks after vanning in from Kentucky. As long as he gets a firm turf course, I'll look for this guy to pull of the mild upset.

Let's check the Equibase morning line. They've got Smooth Bid at 3-1 and Gold Soundz at 7-2. I expect Smooth Bid to be much shorter than that. If they really are both that generous, I'd box them in a fat exacta and watch them run away from the field and who cares which one finishes first. But since I predict Smooth Bid to be pretty heavily bet, let's go with win money on Gold Sound and trifectas with Gold Sound on top, Smooth Bid second, and two others in third, then another ticket with Gold Sound on top, the two others in second, and Smooth Bid in third.

For the two others I'll use Wild Series, wheeling back for his 19th start of the year (!) after a non-effort on Texas Champions Day/Night, and Silver haze, who handled some decent turf horses at Remington this fall.

So it's $20 to win on (Go back to those) Gold Soundz, plus $5 trifectas 5/6/2,3 and 5/2,3/6.

Best of luck!

Chamberlain on racingdispatch.com

I just noticed that the aforementioned Michael Chamberlain, who picked Ms Classic Seneca ($29.60) on top in the Bara Lass Stakes on Saturday, is providing picks to racingdispatch.com, the excellent website that is like a clearing house for racing news, with a smattering of interesting original content as well. We all know there aren't many places to get good Texas racing info online so this is a good website to bookmark and visit often.

By the way, Chamberlain picked three of eight winners in the Texas Champions Day stakes, the same stellar showing as Jim's Orbit on an extremely difficult night to pick more than two winners.

Join Our Mailing List

Now that we're up and running again here at Jim's Orbit, we need to grow our e-mail list. You can sign up by e-mailing me at yourfriendjimbo@gmail.com. Also, please consider e-mailing other Texas racing fans to let them know about the site.

Constructive Criticism

Have you ever tried to find the time for first post on shrp.com? I looked all over on Friday night trying to figure out when the races start and, in the end, I gave up and found the answer at equibase.com. The racing calendar is on several pages, but that only shows the dates for live racing, not the times. If you want to get new folks out to the track, it helps to tell them what time the event starts.

Random thought

Shouldn't it be Texas Champions Night?

Texas Champions Recap: Alleged Hug ($21.20) Saves the Night

I wasn't exactly consistent in my Texas Champions Day handicapping, but keying on Alleged Hug in the Richard King saved my night. I didn't have the right suggested wager on the blog, but did have the $21.20 winner on top and, in my real-life wagers, hit the $113.60 exacta for two bucks. This was a night where you had no chance to grind out a profit, but a good opportunity to make a big score if you came up with the right bomb or middle-priced horse. A lot of short-priced faves went down. It's not easy to go back and look at so many failures in my own picks, but that's how we learn, and that's also how you see that I don't mind being accountable for my handicapping. So here's a review of the picks I posted on Friday...

The Spirit of Texas
Mystery Classic came through as the odds-on favorite, as I predicted, but nearly got caught at the finish by a fast-closing Rain On Monday. The colt I had honed in on to complete the exacta, Nuttyboom, ran a dull fourth.

The Bara Lass
I was nowhere near this, as Ms Classic Seneca wheeled back on one-week's rest to post a $29.60 upset. My pick, the short-priced Valid Lilly, led into mid-stretch but tired badly the final furlong and checked in third. I have to give a huge shout-out to Sam Houston track announcer Michael Chamberlain, who picked the winner on top in his on-track tip sheet, From the Mike, and gave out this filly in the pre-race seminar. He also had the second- and third-place finishers in his top three to round out an incredible $2,400 trifecta. I have never in my life paid for a tip sheet before last night, when I got to the track and the nice lady selling the form asked, as if working the drive-thru at Jack in the Box, "Would you like to add a tip sheet for one dollar more?" I asked her who did it and she told me, "Michael Chamberlain, the announcer." I respect Michael as a handicapper, and I admired the effort to up the sales by the nice lady, so I figured what the hell, I'll check out the tip sheet. Not that I bet the horse, even after getting pushed on the filly a second time by another press box denizen, but I thought I'd relay the story just because I couldn't believe Chamberlain gave that one out. Nice hit, Michael. You can bet I'll be buying From the Mike next time I make it out.

The Groovy
This is another I one I was nowhere close on, but neither was anyone else. The $105.40 winner, Crook's Bodgit, was coming off an eight-length loss in a fist-level allowance at Delta Downs. Value seekers who really looked deep into the past performances, however, might have dismissed his last two efforts--one in the slop and one a poor turf debut. His maiden win at Louisiana Downs wasn't anything special, but at 50-1 an attentive bettor (which I'm not always, especially when I'mat the track drinking beer and socializing) might have seen an overlay worth throwing into the mix.

The Yellow Rose
Everybody (by everybody I guess I mean myself and the three handicappers in the pre-race seminar, plus the bettors whose feelings could be gauged by the prices on the tote board) seemed to think this was a two-horse race between Wrenice and Valid Lil. But Wrenice was done after a half-mile and finished last, and Valid Lil never made any kind of run. Annie Savoy, overlooked at 14-1 despite winning a stakes here last season, came charging in the stretch to win it by a nose over 13-1 Stealth Cat from the Steve Asmusseun barn. I had picked Wrenice with great confidence and will be eager to hear what happened to her.

The Richard King
I named Alleged Hug my "upset special of the day" on Friday, and lo and behold, look who won and paid $21.20! I didn't like General Charley as the favorite, but was still surprised he didn't even hit the board (he checked in seventh). My goofball suggested wager had counted on General Charley finishing second, but in real life that bet was too expensive for me by this point, so I played a 5-6-7 exacta box and cashed for $113.60. Nonetheless, I'm proud to have touted this live longshot on top and hope that some of you had it. If so, remember that you read it here on Jim's Orbit.

The Martanza
You can't blame me for this one, as my top choice went off at 6-1, stalked the leaders in fourth through the opening half-mile, started moving up between rivals on the far turn, then clipped heels and fell. That's a tough way to get beat, when you don't even get to find out whether you picked the best horse in the race or not. I'm at least happy to report that the horse got up and was walked off. I had recommended an exacta with two longshots over the favorite Sweet Idea, who did, in fact, finish second. The other longshot I liked, Sweet Appeal, set a pressured pace at 22-1 and faded to finish fifth. The 11-1 winner, Hollye Lynne, has now won three in a row since joining the barn of John Locke.

The Star of Texas
I'm not surprised that defending champion Sandburr repeated, I just wish I had done the logical thing and bet on it. I had convinced myself on Thursday that it was too risky to bet him coming back off a six-month layoff, but I started to have second thoughts after reading Martha Claussen's reporting in the Chronicle on Friday, which quoted trainer Michael Stidham as saying he was really working well. I should have known then to back off my initial thought, but I was too stubborn and stuck to my opinion, only to watch the favorite roll to a nearly two-length win. That Sandburr's a great Texas-bred, and I hereby vow to start giving him the proper respect. My pick, Goosey Moose, had a no-excuse trip and just came up short, checking in third.

The San Jacinto
My choice, Wild Encounter, finished a disappointing seventh, but in the wagering you would still be a winner, as entrymate Jenz Benz got the job done. I'll count that one in the victory column (paid $5.60), especially since my suggested wager was to bet "everything you have on Wild Encounter to win." So if you took that advice, um, you're welcome!

So, if you count Jenz Benz, this handicapper went three-for-eight in the stakes on a night when the average winner paid $28.25, not a bad record at all. Keep checking back as the season continues for more stakes previews, plus other random tidbits.