Apologies for my long absence. You don't want to know where I've been or where I'm filing this from.
I couldn't let the greatest race of them all go by without weighing in. Here are my Derby picks, in order...
1. GREAT HUNTER - I've had him on top in the www.racingdispatch.com Derby poll since January and I ain't backing off now. At that time I loved his breeding, his connections, and his potential. At this point potential doesn't help anymore, but he's still got those exceptional bloodlines, a trainer who does exceptional things with racehorses (which is different from an "exceptional trainer," but often produces the same result), and a competent jock. But most importantly, and the reason I didn't back off after a fourth in the Blue Grass, he has trained well recently and reports from Churchill have been positive regarding his appearance. Outside post is a bummer, but not impossile to overcome if he can tuck in. It's a very long run to the first turn, so I don't regard post 20 as a dealbreaker.
2. CURLIN - There's a part of me that wonders is I'm brainwashed from too many years in Texas watching Steve Asmussen win anything he sets his mind to. But I think I would be on this horse regardless based on the Arkansas Derby win. It was beautiful. I'm surprised he's the fave, because these Arkansas Derby horses always receive less respect than they deserve, but maybe folks have finally figured it out after seeing Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex. After interviewing Asmussen more times than I'd like to remember, I also know that he's not one to heavily tout his horses in the media. But some of his recent comments have been very strong and oozing with confidence, shocking from a man who understands from experience how difficult a race the Derby is to win. Reports on Curlin's appearance at Churchill this week have been nothing but positive. He's extremely professional, but with only three starts there's also the potential for a bigger race than we've seen yet. If I hadn't followed Great Hunter all year and just looked at this race for the first time today like it was the fifth at Lone Star, here would be the obvious choice.
3. TEUFLESBERG - The classiest 50-1 shot ever. I've loved him since he showed so much heart nearly upsetting Scat Daddy in the Sanford at Saratoga last summer. Then I watched him win a first-level allowance at Churchill in November that showed both an affinity for the surface, and an ability to come from off the pace. This horse is being misidentified by many as part of the early speed, but I believe he can sit in the second flight (which might just mean three lengths behind Hard Spun, but even if there are others contesting it) and move to the lead around the turn. Others will be coming, of course, and a few might pass him, but he has the ability to be in the right position, and the fight to hold on to it to the wire. He has had some rough starts, but in this race a slow start could work in his favor in case he does feel a little fresh. I love him, and I love that hardly anybody else is giving him a second look.
4. STREET SENSE - Not one that I liked very much until reading about his impressive works and appearance at Churchill this week. Nafzger knows how to get one ready for the main event, and it apears he's right on schedule with the juvenile champion. In recent years the Derby winner always makes an impression in his training, but whether the public cares is another matter. Monarchos, Fusaichi, Smarty, Barbaro. This colt is all class, and right now he's at his very best. He scares me.
5. SCAT DADDY - All he did was win the two most important preps at Gulfstream Park, and against legit Grade I horses. It's difficult to separate the Pletcher posse, but they're all capable of winning and all seem to be peaking at the right time. It's probably stupid to not have one of his five in my superfecta, but that's how competitive this group is.
6. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ - Everyone jumped off the formidable bandwagon after the Fountain of Youth loss, but there's no reason to think that was anything more than a schooling session. He had enough graded earnings to make the Derby before the end of 06, and Tagg was just taking his time gearing him up for this race. Like he did masterfully with that Funy Cide character.
7. CIRCULAR QUAY - Not only unraced since early March, like a few others, but also unraced over 8.5 furlongs. Closers are never glamorous, and they need a lot to go the right way. He'll get the pace, but will he be so far back that it's a lost cause by the time he gets rolling? Or will he have to give up too much ground circling such a large field? A very possible winner, but I don't like his style here.
8. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY / 9. COWTOWN CAT / 10. SAM P. - The final three Pletchers are the last of those I think can win. Which means I believe half the field is capable. Which means my exotics are going to be kind of expensive.
11. TIAGO - When I first started following racing as a teenager in the mid-nineties, it was impossible to imagine a Santa Anita Derby winner being as cold in the wagering as this colt will be.
12. DOMINICAN - Ditto the Blue Grass winner. Remember a few years ago when two longshots came in and everyone said, damn, all you had to do was box Baffert and Lukas (it was War Emblem and Proud Citizen)? Well imagine if this year all you had to do was box the longshot Santa Anita, Wood, and Blue Grass winners. But it's never that easy, is it?
13. STORMELLO - Hasn't really done anything wrong, running respectably time and again versus legit Grade I horses. Couldn't blame anyone for taking a flyer here or keying him in some exotics at a nice price. And I'm saying that about the horse I have 13th. This is one competitive Derby, moreso than any I can recall offhand.
14. ZANJERO - Another who is eliciting positive reports about his appearance, but just hasn't shown he belongs. A third in that impossibly slow Blue Grass doesn't tell me anything.
That's it for horseS I believe can make the Superfecta. Which means the only definite tosses are...
15. LIQUIDITY
16. STORM IN MAY
17. 1SEDGEFIELD
18. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
19. BWANA BULL
20. HARD SPUN
I believe my wagering is going to focus on Teuflesberg, who I'll play in a variety of exotics with as many of the possible winners as I can afford to include (well, OK, if I limited to the ones I could afford, it would be a three-horse box, but this is the Derby, so I'm willing to go a little beyond what I can afford!).
Good luck to all!
